2026-27 U.S. Wheat Market Outlook: What Could Wheat Prices Look Like?

Since record prices in early spring 2022, U.S. wheat farmers have watched the excitement of growing wheat on their operations fade. For some, this has led them to seek alternative crops and markets for their acres, but for others, it has meant weathering the storm as best they can. Every year, farmers take immeasurable risks, hoping to produce a crop that lets them continue their way of life. This weighs heavily on them, their families, communities, and one of the largest business sectors in the United States.

Recent weather, geopolitical events, and production, both in the U.S. and globally, have brought much-needed relief to our U.S. wheat producers. For farmers watching wheat prices in 2026 and planning for the year ahead, the U.S. wheat market outlook is beginning to look different than it has in recent years. So where are we headed in our next wheat crop season?

The wheat market heading into the 2026-27 marketing year is shaping up very differently than in the last several years, particularly in Hard Red Winter Wheat. According to the USDA’s projection, 2026 U.S. wheat production will arrive at roughly 1.53 billion bushels. That is the lowest level in more than 50 years. The two leading factors are the ongoing drought across the major wheat-growing states and the decline in wheat acreage. This creates a situation where supply and demand typically do their thing: Less HRW supply + relatively tight HRW supply = stronger basis and great value for quality.

This smaller crop doesn’t necessarily translate into a massive futures rally. If prices rise enough, foreign wheat can become much more competitive, and U.S. exports can suffer. What does this mean for our U.S. farmers? The biggest opportunity may be in the basis and quality premiums rather than better futures. That is an important consideration when looking at any wheat price forecast for the 2026-27 marketing year.

We all know that the United States does not set the world wheat price by itself. Countries such as Russia, Australia, Canada, Ukraine, and regional producers in Europe all play a part in what our wheat farmers do. With the current situation between Russia and Ukraine, it is a complete wildcard as to what the wheat world can expect from them. For the remaining countries, 2025 was a very strong production year. 2026 is a different story. The FAO’s (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) latest forecast shows a decrease in European wheat production, driven by the same major factor we face in the U.S.: weather.

What exactly does this mean for U.S. wheat farmers? It’s hard to be certain about what the U.S. and global wheat market is going to do. Then again, nothing in agriculture is certain. I wouldn’t assume U.S. production issues guarantee $7, $8, or $9/bushel wheat long-term. Any wheat price forecast has to consider more than U.S. production alone, including global production, exports, weather, geopolitical events, futures markets, basis, and grain quality. With current local and geopolitical events, and a global year-over-year production decrease expected, I’d say we’re in a bullish market. Growers with high-quality wheat may be the sweet spot to capitalize on.

So how can wheat farmers put themselves in the best position to capitalize on increased wheat prices?

Here are a couple of things we can do:

Make sure you’re planting the best variety for your farm and your farming practices. Wheat genetics are constantly changing and improving. There are many wheat varieties out there. Take the time to connect with your local sales representative to discuss what wheat variety might perform best for you.

Make sure we’re planting certified weed- and disease-free seed. Establishing a healthy stand gives you a strong chance of a successful wheat crop. Planting certified seed helps minimize the risk of a disturbed stand from the beginning.

Stay in contact with your agronomists and salesmen throughout the growing season. A lot changes during a growing season. Communication with agronomists, retailers, and merchandisers is all factors in making the most of your wheat crop. That is one of the few things in farming that we can control. Planning for diseases that may be prevalent in the upcoming growing season, or even playing the futures market with some of your wheat crop, can impact farm profitability.

Limagrain Cereal Seeds takes pride in helping farmers gear up for a successful growing season. We do what we do for farmers. Whether that is planting a new variety or sharing what we’re hearing and seeing across the countryside, we’d love to connect and see how LCS can help your operation.

Zach Thibault

Mountain West/Northern Plains Commercial Manager